Saturday, August 19, 2017

California's Top 25 Anti-Trump Cities: 2016 Presidential Election


Republican Donald Trump performed poorly in the 2016 presidential election in California.  As CalPolitiCal previously noted, Trump's share of the California vote, 31.62 percent, was the lowest for a Republican since 1856, the first presidential election when a Republican appeared on the ballot.

The following are the twenty-five California cities that were the most anti-Trump in the 2016 presidential election:

1.  Berkeley (Eastshore/I-80): 3.2% Trump, Clinton 90.4%
2.  Compton (I-710 corridor): 4.3% Trump, Clinton 91.8%
3.  Oakland (Eastshore/I-80): 4.8% Trump, Clinton 89.4%
4.   Inglewood (Los Angeles Co.): 5.2% Trump, Clinton 91.1%
5.   Emeryville (Eastshore/I-80): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 88.4%
6.   Lynwood (I-710 corridor): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 89.6%
7.   East Palo Alto (San Mat. Co.): 6.2% Trump, Clinton 89.0%
8.   Albany (Eastshore/I-80): 6.4% Trump, Clinton 88.0%
9.   Cudahy (I-710 corridor): 7.4% Trump, Clinton 87.0%
10. Huron (Fresno County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 88.1%
11. Maywood (I-710 corridor): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 87.8%
12. Fairfax (Marin County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
13. Huntington Park (I-710 area): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 87.2%
14. El Cerrito (Eastshore/I-80): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 86.7%
15. Bell Gardens (I-710 corridor): 8.0% Trump, Clinton 87.4%
16. Richmond (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
17. San Pablo (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.6%
18. Mill Valley (Marin County): 8.5% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
19. Bell (I-710 corridor): 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.8%
20. San Francisco: 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.6%
21. San Anselmo (Marin County): 9.7% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
22. Calexico (Imperial County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 86.3%
23.  Santa Cruz: 9.8% Trump, Clinton 82.4%
24.  Coachella (Riverside County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 85.2%
25.  South Gate (I-710 corridor): 10.1% Trump, Clinton 85.2%


Donald Trump performed most poorly in California in the 2016 presidential election in two clusters of cities: the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor between Oakland and Richmond and heavily Hispanic/Latino "blue collar"/“working class” cities in the I-710 corridor south of Los Angeles. 

Seven cities in the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor are among the top 17 anti-Trump cities in California: Berkeley, Oakland, Emeryville, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond and San Pablo.  Trump’s worst city in California was Berkeley, where he received just 3.2 percent of the vote.  Trump placed third in Berkeley; the Green Party ticket (Jill Stein) received a larger share of the vote (4.6 percent) than Trump (3.2 percent).

Eight cities in the I-710 corridor south of downtown Los Angeles are among the Golden State’s top 25 anti-Trump cities: Compton, Lynwood, Cudahy, Maywood, Huntington Park, Bell Gardens, Bell and South Gate.  (I-710 does not run through Huntington Park, but it neighbors the I-710 communities.)  This is a predominately Hispanic/Latino, working class area.  Trump's share of the 2016 presidential vote ranged from 4.3 percent in Compton to 10.1 percent in South Gate.

Inglewood is at the gateway of LAX airport.  It was the second-most anti-Trump city in southern California (5.2 percent) in the 2016 presidential election.  It has one of southern California's highest concentrations of African Americans (43.9 percent in 2010 census), but now is majority Hispanic/Latino (50.6 percent in 2010 census).

East Palo Alto was Trump's worst northern California city (6.2 percent) outside of Berkeley/Oakland/Emeryville and Trump's worst city on the San Francisco peninsula.  East Palo Alto was 64.5 percent Hispanic/Latino and 16.7 percent Black/African American in the 2010 Census of Population.

The California rural community where Trump performed worst (7.6 percent of total vote) was Huron in western Fresno County.  Huron is overwhelmingly Hispanic/Latino.  Much of the nation’s spring and fall lettuce is grown in the Huron area (between the winter lettuce season in Yuma, Arizona and the summer lettuce season in California’s Salinas Valley).  Trump also performed poorly in Calexico in the Imperial Valley along the Mexican border (9.8 percent) and Coachella (9.8 percent) in the heart of the nation's date-producing area.

Marin County, across the Golden Gate from San Francisco, is home to three highly anti-Trump cities: Fairfax, Mill Valley and San Anselmo.  Demographics skew upscale and predominately non-Hispanic white.  Fairfax has a Green Party majority on its town council.


Comparison: Reagan vs. Trump: 1984 vs. 2016 Presidential Election
 In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan won six California cities that were among Trump's twenty-five worst in the state in 2016.  All were in the I-710 corridor south of downtown Los Angeles.  Reagan won Bell, Bell Gardens, Cudahy, Huntington Park, Maywood and South Gate in 1984.  The only I-710 corridor cities south of downtown Los Angeles that Reagan lost in 1984 were Compton and Lynwood.  (I-710 was known as State Route 7 until 1984.)


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