Saturday, August 19, 2017

California's Top 25 Anti-Trump Cities: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump performed poorly in the 2016 presidential election in California.  As CalPolitiCal previously noted, Trump's share of the California vote, 31.62 percent, was the lowest for a Republican since 1856, the first presidential election when a Republican appeared on the ballot.

The following are the twenty-five California cities that were the most anti-Trump in the 2016 presidential election:

1.  Berkeley (Eastshore/I-80): 3.2% Trump, Clinton 90.4%
2.  Compton (I-710 corridor): 4.3% Trump, Clinton 91.8%
3.  Oakland (Eastshore/I-80): 4.8% Trump, Clinton 89.4%
4.   Inglewood (Los Angeles Co.): 5.2% Trump, Clinton 91.1%
5.   Emeryville (Eastshore/I-80): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 88.4%
6.   Lynwood (I-710 corridor): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 89.6%
7.   East Palo Alto (San Mat. Co.): 6.2% Trump, Clinton 89.0%
8.   Albany (Eastshore/I-80): 6.4% Trump, Clinton 88.0%
9.   Cudahy (I-710 corridor): 7.4% Trump, Clinton 87.0%
10. Huron (Fresno County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 88.1%
11. Maywood (I-710 corridor): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 87.8%
12. Fairfax (Marin County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
13. Huntington Park (I-710 area): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 87.2%
14. El Cerrito (Eastshore/I-80): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 86.7%
15. Bell Gardens (I-710 corridor): 8.0% Trump, Clinton 87.4%
16. Richmond (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
17. San Pablo (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.6%
18. Mill Valley (Marin County): 8.5% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
19. Bell (I-710 corridor): 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.8%
20. San Francisco: 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.6%
21. San Anselmo (Marin County): 9.7% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
22. Calexico (Imperial County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 86.3%
23.  Santa Cruz: 9.8% Trump, Clinton 82.4%
24.  Coachella (Riverside County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 85.2%
25.  South Gate (I-710 corridor): 10.1% Trump, Clinton 85.2%

Donald Trump performed most poorly in California in the 2016 presidential election in two clusters of cities: the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor between Oakland and Richmond and heavily Hispanic/Latino "blue collar"/“working class” cities in the I-710 corridor south of Los Angeles. 

Seven cities in the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor are among the top 17 anti-Trump cities in California: Berkeley, Oakland, Emeryville, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond and San Pablo.  Trump’s worst city in California was Berkeley, where he received just 3.2 percent of the vote.  Trump placed third in Berkeley; the Green Party ticket (Jill Stein) received a larger share of the vote (4.6 percent) than Trump (3.2 percent).

Eight cities in the I-710 corridor south of downtown Los Angeles are among the Golden State’s top 25 anti-Trump cities: Compton, Lynwood, Cudahy, Maywood, Huntington Park, Bell Gardens, Bell and South Gate.  (I-710 does not run through Huntington Park, but it neighbors the I-710 communities.)  This is a predominately Hispanic/Latino, working class area.  Trump's share of the 2016 presidential vote ranged from 4.3 percent in Compton to 10.1 percent in South Gate.

Inglewood is at the gateway of LAX airport.  It was the second-most anti-Trump city in southern California (5.2 percent) in the 2016 presidential election.  It has one of southern California's highest concentrations of African Americans (43.9 percent in 2010 census), but now is majority Hispanic/Latino (50.6 percent in 2010 census).

East Palo Alto was Trump's worst northern California city (6.2 percent) outside of Berkeley/Oakland/Emeryville and Trump's worst city on the San Francisco peninsula.  East Palo Alto was 64.5 percent Hispanic/Latino and 16.7 percent Black/African American in the 2010 Census of Population.

The California rural community where Trump performed worst (7.6 percent of total vote) was Huron in western Fresno County.  Huron is overwhelmingly Hispanic/Latino.  Much of the nation’s spring and fall lettuce is grown in the Huron area (between the winter lettuce season in Yuma, Arizona and the summer lettuce season in California’s Salinas Valley).  Trump also performed poorly in Calexico in the Imperial Valley along the Mexican border (9.8 percent) and Coachella (9.8 percent) in the heart of the nation's date-producing area.

Marin County, across the Golden Gate from San Francisco, is home to three highly anti-Trump cities: Fairfax, Mill Valley and San Anselmo.  Demographics skew upscale and predominately non-Hispanic white.  Fairfax has a Green Party majority on its town council.

Comparison: Reagan vs. Trump: 1984 vs. 2016 Presidential Election
 In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan won six California cities that were among Trump's twenty-five worst in the state in 2016.  All were in the I-710 corridor south of downtown Los Angeles.  Reagan won Bell, Bell Gardens, Cudahy, Huntington Park, Maywood and South Gate in 1984.  The only I-710 corridor cities south of downtown Los Angeles that Reagan lost in 1984 were Compton and Lynwood.  (I-710 was known as State Route 7 until 1984.)

Trump's Top 25 Cities in California: 2016 Presidential Election

Donald Trump’s twenty-five best cities in California in the 2016 presidential election mostly were rural and predominately white:

1.  Maricopa (Kern County): Trump 82.5%, Clinton 11.7%
2.  Taft (Kern Co.): Trump 80.5%, Clinton 16.9%
3.  Canyon Lake (Riverside Co.): Trump 74.8%, Clinton 21.7%
4.  Montague (Siskiyou Co.): Trump 69.9%, Clinton 23.0%
5.  Susanville (Lassen Co.): Trump 67.5%, Clinton 25.5%
6.  Alturas (Modoc Co.): Trump 67.3%, Clinton 26.9%
7.  Ripon (San Joaquin Co.): Trump 66.7%, Clinton 27.5%
8.  Tulelake (Siskiyou Co.): Trump 65.9%, Clinton 27.6%
9.  Norco (Riverside Co.): Trump 65.7%, Clinton 29.3%
10. Anderson (Shasta Co.): Trump 65.6%, Clinton 27.0%
11.  Indian Wells (Riverside Co.): Trump 65.6%, Clinton 31.2%
12.  Kingsburg (Fresno County): Trump 65.2%, Clinton 29.5%
13.  Wheatland (Yuba County): Trump 64.3%, Clinton 28.7%
14.  Tehachapi (Kern County): Trump 63.8%, Clinton 29.2%
15.  Dorris (Siskiyou County): Trump 63.7%, Clinton 29.0%
16.  Shasta Lake (Shasta Co.): Trump 63.7%, Clinton 29.0%
17.  Ione (Amador Co.): Trump 63.6%, Clinton 30.4%
18.  Villa Park (Orange Co.): Trump 63.2%, Clinton 31.7%
19.  Calimesa (Riverside Co.): Trump 63.1%, Clinton 31.4%
20.  Exeter (Tulare Co.): Trump 62.6%, Clinton 31.2%
21.  Redding (Shasta Co.): Trump 62.4%, Clinton 30.9%
22.  Yucca Valley (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.4%, Clinton 32.3%
23.  Apple Valley (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.3%, Clinton 32.7%
24.  Yucaipa (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.3%, Clinton 32.0%
25.  Big Bear Lake (San Bern. Co.): Trump 61.7%, Clinton 33.0%

Trump performed best in the neighboring cities of Maricopa and Taft along State Route 33 in the extreme southwestern portion of the Central Valley.  Maricopa was the most pro-Trump city in California; Trump won 82.5 percent of the vote.  In neighboring Taft, Trump garnered an 80.5 percent share.  This is oil patch country; the vast Midway-Sunset Oil Field, the nation's third-largest, underlays the region.  These two cities have a voting pattern akin to rural Texas, strongly Democratic in the mid-20th century, but staunchly Republican and pro-Trump in 2016.  Maricopa and Taft supported Democrat Lyndon Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964.  Like the state of Texas, Maricopa last voted Democratic for president in 1976 (“Jimmy” Carter); today it is among the nation’s most pro-Trump cities.

Trump also won a high percentage of the vote in rural cities in far northeastern California, including Montague, Susanville, Alturas, Tulelake, Dorris and Shasta Lake.  Susanville is a rare example of a “McGovern/Trump” city in California; Susanville narrowly supported Democrat George McGovern in 1972, but backed Trump strongly in 2016. Susanville used to be a unionized “lumber mill” town; today prisons are a major employer.  Susanville, Alturas and Dorris are “Humphrey/Trump” and “Carter ‘76/Trump” cities; Democrats Hubert Humphrey and “Jimmy” Carter won those three cities in 1968 and 1976 respectively.  Carter also won Montague in 1976.  Yet in 2016 they voted strongly Republican.  The lumber mills and their unionized jobs are gone.

Three cities in the Sacramento Valley strongly backed Trump: Anderson, Wheatland and Redding.  All three cities are rare examples of “Humphrey/Trump” cities in California; all three supported Democrat Hubert Humphrey over Republican Richard Nixon in the narrow 1968 presidential election.  Anderson, on I-5 south of Redding, is a “McGovern/Trump” city.  The Anderson area was home to Kimberly-Clark’s Shasta Mill, a pulp and paper factory, from the mid-1960s until its abrupt closure in August 2001.  Jimmy Carter won Anderson and Wheatland in 1976, but narrowly lost Redding.

Ripon was the most pro-Trump city closest to the strongly anti-Trump San Francisco Bay Area.  Ripon and Kingsburg were the most pro-Trump cities in the San Joaquin Valley’s State Route 99 corridor.  Ripon is named for Ripon, Wisconsin, the 1850s birthplace of the Republican Party.  Kingsburg is perhaps best known for its Swedish founders and as the headquarters of Sun Maid Raisins. Many other State Route 99 cities are “bellwethers” that move from election to election with statewide or national political currents, but Ripon and Kingsburg are reliably Republican (Lodi is, too, but it is not on the pro-Trump top 25 list).  Ripon and Lodi were the two San Joaquin Valley cities that supported Republican Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election. The 2010 Census of Population found that Ripon is 22 percent Hispanic/Latino and Kingsburg is 43 percent Hispanic/Latino.

Norco in northwestern Riverside County and Villa Park in Orange County were strong pro-Trump "outliers" in metropolitan southern California.  They were among the dozen or so pro-Trump "islands" within the vast metropolitan area centered on Los Angeles and stretching to Lancaster and Santa Clarita on the north, Ventura on the west, Redlands on the east and Irvine on the south that otherwise supported Democrat Hillary Clinton.  Norco was 30 percent Hispanic/Latino in the 2010 census. Villa Park is a very wealthy community (10 percent Hispanic/Latino in 2010 census).

Rural foothill enclaves, such as Tehachapi in Kern County and Ione in Amador County, also were enthusiastic Trump backers in 2016.  Tehachapi is along State Route 58 in the Tehachapi Mountains southeast of Bakersfield.  Ione is in the Sierra Nevada foothills; it has unique geology and plant life. The 2010 Census of Population found that Tehachapi is 38 percent Hispanic/Latino.  Ione was 25 percent Hispanic/Latino in 2010.  It is possible that political cleavages in both foothill cities generally are along racial/ethnic lines.

Two upscale Riverside County cities were strongly pro-Trump: Canyon Lake (a city that essentially is a gated community) and Indian Wells (home of conservative political mega-donor Charles Koch).  Private golf courses characterize both cities. A sign at a main checkpoint gate to the residential portion of Canyon Lake leaves little doubt as to the closed nature of the city: "Canyon Lake  A PRIVATE COMMUNITY   MEMBERS & GUESTS ONLY."

San Bernardino County was strongly bifurcated in the 2016 presidential election, with the metropolitan cities siding with Clinton and many rural cities strongly backing Trump. In 2016, for the first time since the 1940s (if not earlier), every San Bernardino County city in the valley between the Los Angeles County line and Redlands voted Democratic.  Many "rural" San Bernardino County cities were strongly pro-Trump, including Yucca Valley, Apple Valley and Big Bear Lake.