Saturday, August 19, 2017

California's Top 25 Anti-Trump Cities: 2016 Presidential Election

Republican Donald Trump performed poorly in the 2016 presidential election in California.  As CalPolitiCal previously noted, Trump's share of the California vote, 31.62 percent, was the lowest for a Republican since 1856, the first presidential election when a Republican appeared on the ballot.

The following are the twenty-five California cities that were the most anti-Trump in the 2016 presidential election:

1.  Berkeley (Eastshore/I-80): 3.2% Trump, Clinton 90.4%
2.  Compton (I-710 corridor): 4.3% Trump, Clinton 91.8%
3.  Oakland (Eastshore/I-80): 4.8% Trump, Clinton 89.4%
4.   Inglewood (Los Angeles Co.): 5.2% Trump, Clinton 91.1%
5.   Emeryville (Eastshore/I-80): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 88.4%
6.   Lynwood (I-710 corridor): 6.0% Trump, Clinton 89.6%
7.   East Palo Alto (San Mat. Co.): 6.2% Trump, Clinton 89.0%
8.   Albany (Eastshore/I-80): 6.4% Trump, Clinton 88.0%
9.   Cudahy (I-710 corridor): 7.4% Trump, Clinton 87.0%
10. Huron (Fresno County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 88.1%
11. Maywood (I-710 corridor): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 87.8%
12. Fairfax (Marin County): 7.6% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
13. Huntington Park (I-710 area): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 87.2%
14. El Cerrito (Eastshore/I-80): 7.8% Trump, Clinton 86.7%
15. Bell Gardens (I-710 corridor): 8.0% Trump, Clinton 87.4%
16. Richmond (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
17. San Pablo (Eastshore/I-80): 8.1% Trump, Clinton 87.6%
18. Mill Valley (Marin County): 8.5% Trump, Clinton 87.1%
19. Bell (I-710 corridor): 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.8%
20. San Francisco: 9.3% Trump, Clinton 85.6%
21. San Anselmo (Marin County): 9.7% Trump, Clinton 85.4%
22. Calexico (Imperial County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 86.3%
23.  Santa Cruz: 9.8% Trump, Clinton 82.4%
24.  Coachella (Riverside County): 9.8% Trump, Clinton 85.2%
25.  South Gate (I-710 corridor): 10.1% Trump, Clinton 85.2%

Donald Trump performed most poorly in California in the 2016 presidential election in two clusters of cities: the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor between Oakland and Richmond and heavily Hispanic/Latino "blue collar"/“working class” cities in the I-710 corridor south of Los Angeles. 

Seven cities in the I-80/Eastshore Freeway corridor are among the top 17 anti-Trump cities in California: Berkeley, Oakland, Emeryville, Albany, El Cerrito, Richmond and San Pablo.  Trump’s worst city in California was Berkeley, where he received just 3.2 percent of the vote.  Trump placed third in Berkeley; the Green Party ticket (Jill Stein) received a larger share of the vote (4.6 percent) than Trump (3.2 percent).

Eight cities in the I-710 corridor south of downtown Los Angeles are among the Golden State’s top 25 anti-Trump cities: Compton, Lynwood, Cudahy, Maywood, Huntington Park, Bell Gardens, Bell and South Gate.  (I-710 does not run through Huntington Park, but it neighbors the I-710 communities.)  This is a predominately Hispanic/Latino, working class area.  Trump's share of the 2016 presidential vote ranged from 4.3 percent in Compton to 10.1 percent in South Gate.

Inglewood is at the gateway of LAX airport.  It was the second-most anti-Trump city in southern California (5.2 percent) in the 2016 presidential election.  It has one of southern California's highest concentrations of African Americans (43.9 percent in 2010 census), but now is majority Hispanic/Latino (50.6 percent in 2010 census).

East Palo Alto was Trump's worst northern California city (6.2 percent) outside of Berkeley/Oakland/Emeryville and Trump's worst city on the San Francisco peninsula.  East Palo Alto was 64.5 percent Hispanic/Latino and 16.7 percent Black/African American in the 2010 Census of Population.

The California rural community where Trump performed worst (7.6 percent of total vote) was Huron in western Fresno County.  Huron is overwhelmingly Hispanic/Latino.  Much of the nation’s spring and fall lettuce is grown in the Huron area (between the winter lettuce season in Yuma, Arizona and the summer lettuce season in California’s Salinas Valley).  Trump also performed poorly in Calexico in the Imperial Valley along the Mexican border (9.8 percent) and Coachella (9.8 percent) in the heart of the nation's date-producing area.

Marin County, across the Golden Gate from San Francisco, is home to three highly anti-Trump cities: Fairfax, Mill Valley and San Anselmo.  Demographics skew upscale and predominately non-Hispanic white.  Fairfax has a Green Party majority on its town council.

Trump's Top 25 Cities in California: 2016 Presidential Election

Donald Trump’s twenty-five best cities in California in the 2016 presidential election mostly were rural and predominately white:

1.  Maricopa (Kern County): Trump 82.5%, Clinton 11.7%
2.  Taft (Kern Co.): Trump 80.5%, Clinton 16.9%
3.  Canyon Lake (Riverside Co.): Trump 74.8%, Clinton 21.7%
4.  Montague (Siskiyou Co.): Trump 69.9%, Clinton 23.0%
5.  Susanville (Lassen Co.): Trump 67.5%, Clinton 25.5%
6.  Alturas (Modoc Co.): Trump 67.3%, Clinton 26.9%
7.  Ripon (San Joaquin Co.): Trump 66.7%, Clinton 27.5%
8.  Tulelake (Siskiyou Co.): Trump 65.9%, Clinton 27.6%
9.  Norco (Riverside Co.): Trump 65.7%, Clinton 29.3%
10. Anderson (Shasta Co.): Trump 65.6%, Clinton 27.0%
11.  Indian Wells (Riverside Co.): Trump 65.6%, Clinton 31.2%
12.  Kingsburg (Fresno County): Trump 65.2%, Clinton 29.5%
13.  Wheatland (Yuba County): Trump 64.3%, Clinton 28.7%
14.  Tehachapi (Kern County): Trump 63.8%, Clinton 29.2%
15.  Dorris (Siskiyou County): Trump 63.7%, Clinton 29.0%
16.  Shasta Lake (Shasta Co.): Trump 63.7%, Clinton 29.0%
17.  Ione (Amador Co.): Trump 63.6%, Clinton 30.4%
18.  Villa Park (Orange Co.): Trump 63.2%, Clinton 31.7%
19.  Calimesa (Riverside Co.): Trump 63.1%, Clinton 31.4%
20.  Exeter (Tulare Co.): Trump 62.6%, Clinton 31.2%
21.  Redding (Shasta Co.): Trump 62.4%, Clinton 30.9%
22.  Yucca Valley (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.4%, Clinton 32.3%
23.  Apple Valley (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.3%, Clinton 32.7%
24.  Yucaipa (San Bern. Co.): Trump 62.3%, Clinton 32.0%
25.  Big Bear Lake (San Bern. Co.): Trump 61.7%, Clinton 33.0%

Trump performed best in the neighboring cities of Maricopa and Taft along State Route 33 in the extreme southwestern portion of the Central Valley.  Maricopa was the most pro-Trump city in California; Trump won 82.5 percent of the vote.  In neighboring Taft, Trump garnered an 80.5 percent share.  This is oil patch country; the vast Midway-Sunset Oil Field, the nation's third-largest, underlays the region.  These two cities have a voting pattern akin to rural Texas, strongly Democratic in the mid-20th century, but staunchly Republican and pro-Trump in 2016.  Maricopa and Taft supported Democrat Lyndon Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater in 1964.  Like the state of Texas, Maricopa last voted Democratic for president in 1976 (“Jimmy” Carter); today it is among the nation’s most pro-Trump cities.

Trump also won a high percentage of the vote in rural cities in far northeastern California, including Montague, Susanville, Alturas, Tulelake, Dorris and Shasta Lake.  Susanville is a rare example of a “McGovern/Trump” city in California; Susanville narrowly supported Democrat George McGovern in 1972, but backed Trump strongly in 2016. Susanville used to be a unionized “lumber mill” town; today prisons are a major employer.  Susanville, Alturas and Dorris are “Humphrey/Trump” and “Carter ‘76/Trump” cities; Democrats Hubert Humphrey and “Jimmy” Carter won those three cities in 1968 and 1976 respectively.  Carter also won Montague in 1976.  Yet in 2016 they voted strongly Republican.  The lumber mills and their unionized jobs are gone.

Three cities in the Sacramento Valley strongly backed Trump: Anderson, Wheatland and Redding.  All three cities are rare examples of “Humphrey/Trump” cities in California; all three supported Democrat Hubert Humphrey over Republican Richard Nixon in the narrow 1968 presidential election.  Anderson, on I-5 south of Redding, is a “McGovern/Trump” city.  The Anderson area was home to Kimberly-Clark’s Shasta Mill, a pulp and paper factory, from the mid-1960s until its abrupt closure in August 2001.  Jimmy Carter won Anderson and Wheatland in 1976, but narrowly lost Redding.

Ripon was the most pro-Trump city closest to the strongly anti-Trump San Francisco Bay Area.  Ripon and Kingsburg were the most pro-Trump cities in the San Joaquin Valley’s State Route 99 corridor.  Ripon is named for Ripon, Wisconsin, the 1850s birthplace of the Republican Party.  Kingsburg is perhaps best known for its Swedish founders and as the headquarters of Sun Maid Raisins. Many other State Route 99 cities are “bellwethers” that move from election to election with statewide or national political currents, but Ripon and Kingsburg are reliably Republican (Lodi is, too, but it is not on the pro-Trump top 25 list).  Ripon and Lodi were the two San Joaquin Valley cities that supported Republican Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election. The 2010 Census of Population found that Ripon is 22 percent Hispanic/Latino and Kingsburg is 43 percent Hispanic/Latino.

Norco in northwestern Riverside County and Villa Park in Orange County were strong pro-Trump "outliers" in metropolitan southern California.  They was among the dozen or so pro-Trump "islands" within the vast metropolitan area centered on Los Angeles and stretching to Lancaster and Santa Clarita on the north, Ventura on the west, Redlands on the east and Irvine on the south that otherwise supported Democrat Hillary Clinton.  Norco was 30 percent Hispanic/Latino in the 2010 census. Villa Park is a very wealthy community (10 percent Hispanic/Latino in 2010 census).

Rural foothill enclaves, such as Tehachapi in Kern County and Ione in Amador County, also were enthusiastic Trump backers in 2016.  Tehachapi is along State Route 58 in the Tehachapi Mountains southeast of Bakersfield.  Ione is in the Sierra Nevada foothills; it has unique geology and plant life. The 2010 Census of Population found that Tehachapi is 38 percent Hispanic/Latino.  Ione was 25 percent Hispanic/Latino in 2010.  It is possible that political cleavages in both foothill cities generally are along racial/ethnic lines.

Two upscale Riverside County cities were strongly pro-Trump: Canyon Lake (a city that essentially is a gated community) and Indian Wells (home of conservative political mega-donor Charles Koch).  Private golf courses characterize both cities. A sign at a main checkpoint gate to the residential portion of Canyon Lake leaves little doubt as to the closed nature of the city: "Canyon Lake  A PRIVATE COMMUNITY   MEMBERS & GUESTS ONLY."

San Bernardino County was strongly bifurcated in the 2016 presidential election, with the metropolitan cities siding with Clinton and many rural cities strongly backing Trump. In 2016, for the first time since the 1940s (if not earlier), every San Bernardino County city between the Los Angeles County line and Redlands voted Democratic.  Many "rural" San Bernardino County cities were strongly pro-Trump, including Yucca Valley, Apple Valley and Big Bear Lake.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Southern California Cities Strongly Rejected Trump in 2016 Presidential Election

Southern California resoundingly rejected Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.  No Republican presidential nominee has performed so poorly in the region in the past 80 years.  This is seen quite dramatically in the city-level election returns.  

 In the vast Los Angeles metropolitan area stretching from Ventura in the west to Redlands and Moreno Valley in the east and from Santa Clarita in the north to Irvine in the south, Trump won just a dozen cities.  If one were to survey the political landscape from atop the tallest skyscraper in downtown Los Angeles, the closest cities that backed Trump would be Simi Valley in Ventura County in the west, Rolling Hills on the Palos Verdes Peninsula to the southwest, Bradbury in the San Gabriel Valley to the northeast and La Habra Heights to the southeast.  

The expanse of the Los Angeles Basin and central Orange County voted solidly against Trump.  This is a remarkable reversal as this region was strong Eisenhower, Nixon, Goldwater, Ford, Reagan and George H.W. Bush country in the late 20th century.

Los Angeles County: Trump won in a mere five cities of Los Angeles County’s 88 cities: Rolling Hills on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, La Habra Heights in the Puente Hills, and Bradbury, Glendora, and La Verne in the San Gabriel Valley.  All five cities are upscale, hilly enclaves.  Trump's collective margin of victory in these five cities was 2,291 votes; Clinton easily offset those votes in Rancho Palos Verdes alone, where her margin of victory was 2,347 votes.

Trump was the first Republican presidential nominee to lose the upscale cities of San Marino, Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes and Rolling Hills Estates since they were incorporated as cities. (San Marino was home of staunchly conservative Congressman John Rousselot, an ex-John Birch Society leader, from 1970 to 83.)  Trump lost Santa Clarita (home of Magic Mountain theme park), the first Republican presidential nominee to lose that city since its 1987 incorporation.  Trump also lost San Dimas (setting of 1989 movie "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure") in the San Gabriel Valley; all Republican presidential nominees back to Barry Goldwater in 1964 had won that city.  (Bradbury, Glendora and La Verne, three of the five Los Angeles County cities that Trump won, are near San Dimas. All three cities are at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains,)

Orange County:  Trump was the first Republican to lose a presidential election in Orange County since 1936Trump lost in every congressional district in Orange County except the 49th District, where nine-term Republican Congressman Darrell Issa narrowly won re-election. 

Once a quintessential Republican stronghold, Trump lost every city in central Orange County, including Fullerton, Anaheim, Orange, Tustin and Santa Ana (Barry Goldwater won those five cities in 1964).  The only Orange County cities that Trump won outside of the south county were Brea, Yorba Linda, Villa Park, Huntington Beach and Newport Beach.  Trump dominated only in southern Orange County, where he won Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita. 

Trump exceeded 55 percent in just two Orange County cities: Villa Park and Yorba Linda.  Trump won Brea, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel and Lake Forest with less than 50 percent of the vote.

San Bernardino County: Trump lost every city in San Bernardino County's non-desert area, including traditional Republican stalwarts such as Chino Hills, Grand Terrace, Redlands and Upland.  Trump won just eight of San Bernardino County’s twenty-four cities: Apple Valley, Barstow, Big Bear Lake, Hesperia, Needles, Twenty Nine Palms, Yucaipa and Yucca Valley.

Redlands and Upland had not voted for a Democrat for president in more than fourteen presidential elections; they supported Barry Goldwater in '64.  Grand Terrace and Chino Hills supported a Democrat for president for the first time since their incorporations in 1978 and 1991 respectively.  Loma Linda had voted Republican for president since its 1970 incorporation until the 2012 election, when it favored Democrat Barack Obama over Republican "Mitt" Romney; it is among the few California cities that voted against Obama in '08, but for Obama in '12.  Loma Linda voted against Trump in '16.  In 2016, Rancho Cucamonga voted for a Democrat for president for the second time since its 1977 incorporation; it narrowly supported Barack Obama over John McCain in '08.  Victorville voted Democratic for president in 2016 for the fifth time since its incorporation in 1962.  Victorville also favored Democrats for president in 1964, 1992, 2008 and 2012.

Barstow is a presidential “bellwether” city; it backed Bush in ’04, Obama in ’08 and ’12 and Trump in ’16.  Needles also tends to be a presidential "bellwether," but it favored McCain over Obama in '08 (perhaps influenced by the nearby Arizona border).  Barstow, Needles and Blythe (Riverside County) are the trio of Obama '12/Trump '16 cities in southern California.  All three are interstate highway "pit stop" cities.  (A total of five California cities voted Obama '12/Trump '16: the two in northern California are Crescent City, seat of Del Norte County, and Sonora, seat of Tuolumne County.)

Riverside County: Trump lost every city in the populous northwestern portion of Riverside County (including Riverside, Corona, Moreno Valley, Eastvale and Jurupa Valley) except Norco.  Trump lost in four of the county's five supervisor districts. Trump dominated only in the southwestern portion of the county (Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Hemet, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Murrieta, Temecula, Wildomar), the San Gorgonio Pass area (Banning, Beaumont) and the stalwart Republican cities near Palm Springs (Indian Wells, La Quinta, Palm Desert). 

Trump's share of the vote in Canyon Lake, 74.8 percent, was the highest of any southern California city (and third highest in Cailfornia, behind Maricopa and Taft in Kern County).  Norco was Trump's ninth-best city in California (Trump won 65.7 percent of the vote).  Indian Wells ranked tenth among California cities for Trump's share of the vote, 65.6 percent. 

Trump also won Blythe, near the Colorado River and Arizona border.  As discussed above, Blythe is a presidential "bellwether" city that supported Obama in '12 and Trump in '16 (Blythe supported McCain over Obama in '08, likely due to influence from nearby Arizona).

Rancho Mirage voted Democratic for president in 2016 for the first time since its 1973 incorporation.  The retirement home of the late former President Gerald Ford, Rancho Mirage once typified the Republican-dominated retirement/golf course communities in the Coachella Valley (it voted two to one for Ford over Carter in '76). San Jacinto was among California’s best presidential “bellwether” cities, backing the electoral college winner in every presidential election since 1964, but it rejected Trump in 2016 by a wide, eleven-point margin (52.7% Clinton vs. 41.7% Trump). 

Ventura County was a presidential “bellwether” county over the past century, favoring the national electoral vote winner in every election since 1916, except 1976 when it favored Gerald Ford over "Jimmy" Carter.  Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star Free Press analyzed the county's presidential bellwether trend in a 2012 article.

Ventura County has developed a Democratic tilt in the early 21st century.  Trump won just one Ventura County city, Simi Valley (home of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and site of the Los Angeles Police Department brutality trial acquittal that triggered the 1992 Los Angeles riots) in 2016. Trump's margin of victory in Simi Valley was not large (49.0 percent Trump vs. 44.8 percent Clinton).

Trump was the first Republican presidential nominee to lose Camarillo since Goldwater lost that city in 1964. Trump was the second Republican to lose in Thousand Oaks over the past fourteen presidential elections; Thousand Oaks voted for Goldwater in '64 but narrowly favored Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain in 2008.  Thousand Oaks supported Republican "Mitt" Romney in 2012.

 In Santa Barbara County, Trump also won just one city, Solvang.  Trump won Solvang by a mere 35 votes (47.9 percent Trump vs. 46.7 percent Clinton).  Trump lost in Buellton (famous as a road stop for its Split Pea Andersen's restaurant), which had voted for Republicans for president since its 1992 incorporation until Barack Obama won that city in 2008 (Buellton went to Republican "Mitt" Romney in 2012).

In San Diego County, Trump won a mere four cities: Coronado on the coast and El Cajon, Poway and Santee inland. Trump exceeded 50 percent only in Santee; Coronado, El Cajon and Poway were relatively narrow wins. In stark contrast, George W. Bush won twelve San Diego County cities in 2004.  

Just a dozen years ago, it would have been unthinkable that a Republican presidential nominee could lose State Route 78 corridor cities like Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, San Marcos and Escondido, but Trump lost in all five communities and nearly defeated nine-term Republican Congressman Darrell Issa on his coattails.

San Diego County was among the few counties in the Pacific Coast states that voted for Goldwater in '64.   Goldwater won all of the State Route 78 corridor cities except Oceanside.  Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '80 and '84 won every San Diego County city.  In 1988, Republican George H.W. Bush won every San Diego County city except National City.

Imperial County: Trump won no city in California's southeastern-most county.  Imperial County has one of the most Hispanic/Latino-dominated electorates in California (the 2010 Census of Population found that Imperial County is 80.4 percent Hispanic/Latino).  The last time that a Republican won an Imperial County city in a presidential race was 2004, when George W. Bush won the city of Imperial. Trump won just 9.8 percent of the 2016 presidential vote in Calexico (across the border from Mexicali, the capital of Baja California); this was Trump's smallest share of the vote in any southern California city outside of the Los Angeles Basin.

A freeway tour of metropolitan southern California would demonstrate that pro-Trump cities are few. If one were to drive the length of U.S. 101 from Santa Maria in northern Santa Barbara County to its terminus in downtown Los Angeles, a 160-mile journey, every city along the way voted against Trump.  If one were to drive I-10 from its beginning in Santa Monica eastward, the trip would pass 88 miles entirely through cities that voted against Trump until Yucaipa, east of San Bernardino.  If one were to drive the entire 72-mile length of I-405 from the San Fernando Valley to Irvine in Orange County, the only pro-Trump city that one would traverse would be a tiny bit of Huntington Beach.  A drive down I-5 from the Kern County-Los Angeles County line to the Mexican border would pass through pro-Trump cities only in southern Orange County.  Every city along I-5 in Los Angeles and San Diego counties and every city along I-5 in northern and central Orange County voted against Trump.

Trump’s debacle in southern California stands in stark contrast with Ronald Reagan’s performance 32 years ago when he defeated Democrat Walter Mondale.  In 1984, Reagan lost in just 17 cities in all of southern California.  Reagan lost 14 cities in Los Angeles County: Beverly Hills, Carson, Commerce, Compton, Culver City, Gardena, Inglewood, Irwindale, Los Angeles, Lynwood, Montebello, Pico Rivera, Santa Monica and South El Monte.  Reagan won every city in Orange County, every city in San Diego County, every city in Ventura County and every city in Santa Barbara County.  Reagan lost in just one San Bernardino County city (Colton), one Riverside County city (Coachella) and one Imperial County city (Calexico).  Reagan won, but Trump lost, in Ventura, Long Beach, Torrance, Pasadena, Burbank, Glendale, West Covina, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego, just to name a few cities.

The axis of the national Republican party has shifted away from southern California in the early 21st century.  Trump’s dour “American carnage” is a continent and a generation apart from Reagan’s sunny optimism.